AFLW · ROUND 10 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 2
WB to win, 54% chance
CAR 46%54% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 27.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie McKay | CHF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 62% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WL | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 62% | 22% | 8% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FPR | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 61% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Vescio | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Bella | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tayla McMillan | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 62% | 22% | 8% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 42% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Analea McKee | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |