AFLW · ROUND 10 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 2
WB to win, 54% chance
CAR 46%54% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 27.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 4.4 | 2.9 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.3 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 7.1 | 54% | 39% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FPR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Vescio | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie McKay | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tayla McMillan | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lauren Bella | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma McDonald | FF | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 46% | 31% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 40% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Analea McKee | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |