AFLW · ROUND 10 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 2
WB to win, 54% chance
CAR 46%54% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 27.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 82% | 69% | 53% | 39% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 25% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 56% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 56% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | CHB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tayla McMillan | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Bella | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Vescio | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sophie McKay | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Western Bulldogs
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikala Cann | RR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 87% | 76% | 62% | 49% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 80% | 67% | 50% | 37% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 75% | 59% | 41% | 25% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 56% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Analea McKee | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |