AFLW · ROUND 10 · WINDY HILL
Collingwood v Sydney Swans
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 12:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 14
SYD to win, 73% chance
COL 27%73% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 36.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarni White | HBFL | 20.9 | 17.5 to 24.4 | 12.4 to 29.5 | 91% | 64% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.1 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 87% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | HBFR | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.6 to 27.0 | 82% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.1 | 10.6 to 26.9 | 81% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 61% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | FF | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 23% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kellyann Hogan | WR | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | WL | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 16.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | INT | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Imogen Barnett | RK | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | HFFR | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Eliza James | CHF | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 5.6 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
Sydney Swans
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | C | 25.7 | 21.9 to 29.5 | 16.4 to 35.0 | 97% | 89% | 62% | 27% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 21.7 | 18.2 to 25.2 | 13.0 to 30.4 | 93% | 69% | 33% | 9% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.3 | 12.3 to 29.3 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | FPR | 17.9 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.9 to 25.9 | 77% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | RR | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.3 | 8.5 to 23.8 | 67% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 63% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Imogen Brown | WR | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 17.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Taylor Smith | HFFR | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Amelia Martin | BPL | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFL | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | INT | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Caitlin Reid | RK | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |