AFLW · ROUND 10 · WINDY HILL
Collingwood v Sydney Swans
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 12:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 14
SYD to win, 73% chance
COL 27%73% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 36.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Centra | R | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 111 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Tarni White | HBFL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 73 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Airlie Runnalls | HBFR | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 67 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 43% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Sabrina Frederick | FF | 62 | 49 to 74 | 30 to 93 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Imogen Barnett | RK | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Kellyann Hogan | WR | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Kalinda Howarth | INT | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 40 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Eliza James | CHF | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Jemma Rigoni | WL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Imogen Trengove | HFFR | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19 |
Sydney Swans
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | C | 99 | 84 to 115 | 62 to 136 | 92% | 81% | 67% | 49% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 131 |
| Montana Ham | R | 87 | 72 to 102 | 52 to 122 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Tanya Kennedy | FPR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 109 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 69 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 46% | 30% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Lucy McEvoy | RR | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Taylor Smith | HFFR | 54 | 42 to 67 | 24 to 84 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Imogen Brown | WR | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 69 |
| Caitlin Reid | RK | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Amelia Martin | BPL | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 54 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |