AFLW · ROUND 10 · WINDY HILL
Collingwood v Sydney Swans
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 12:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 14
SYD to win, 73% chance
COL 27%73% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 36.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Centra | R | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza James | CHF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 42% | 14% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | FF | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kellyann Hogan | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Barnett | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tarni White | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 1.7 | 1.2 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 71% | 52% | 22% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Taylor Smith | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 63% | 24% | 10% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 61% | 21% | 8% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | FPR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caitlin Reid | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Brown | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amelia Martin | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |