AFLW · ROUND 10 · WINDY HILL
Collingwood v Sydney Swans
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 12:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 14
SYD to win, 73% chance
COL 27%73% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 36.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 81% | 68% | 51% | 38% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 78% | 62% | 44% | 28% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 75% | 59% | 41% | 25% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 70% | 50% | 35% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | WL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tarni White | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Barnett | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kellyann Hogan | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eliza James | CHF | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Sydney Swans
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | C | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 89% | 80% | 67% | 54% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | FPR | 5.9 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 87% | 77% | 62% | 49% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 82% | 70% | 54% | 39% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 71% | 56% | 41% | 29% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Imogen Brown | WR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 56% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Smith | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caitlin Reid | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amelia Martin | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |