AFLW · ROUND 10 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v North Melbourne
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 36
NM to win, 92% chance
ESS 8%92% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 15.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 27.1 | 23.2 to 31.0 | 17.6 to 36.7 | 98% | 92% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.4 to 28.2 | 87% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | HBFR | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.2 to 26.4 | 78% | 40% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 14.6 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.3 to 22.0 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Georgia Gee | HFFR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Mia Busch | WL | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | FB | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Grace Belloni | RR | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | WR | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HFFL | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | INT | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Daria Bannister | FPR | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sophie Strong | INT | 4.8 | 2.9 to 6.8 | 0.0 to 9.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
North Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 30.8 | 26.7 to 34.9 | 20.7 to 40.9 | 100% | 96% | 87% | 62% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 29.6 | 25.6 to 33.6 | 19.7 to 39.5 | 100% | 96% | 83% | 54% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.7 | 11.9 to 28.8 | 90% | 61% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.5 | 11.7 to 28.5 | 89% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Libby Birch | HBFL | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.8 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.5 to 23.9 | 68% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.2 to 23.5 | 63% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 57% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Vikki Wall | FPR | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFR | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Taylah Gatt | WL | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Bella Eddey | HFFL | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 23% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 16.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 9.4 | 6.9 to 12.0 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Maddison Torpey | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |