AFLW · ROUND 10 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v North Melbourne
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 36
NM to win, 92% chance
ESS 8%92% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 15.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 98 | 83 to 113 | 61 to 135 | 90% | 80% | 64% | 46% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 108 | 59% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 73 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Amy Gaylor | HBFR | 69 | 56 to 82 | 37 to 102 | 46% | 30% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Georgia Gee | HFFR | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Mia Busch | WL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Grace Belloni | RR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Georgia Clarke | FB | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Holly Ridewood | WR | 40 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HFFL | 40 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Daria Bannister | FPR | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Matilda Dyke | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Sophie Alexander | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12 |
| Sophie Strong | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
North Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 109 | 93 to 125 | 71 to 148 | 96% | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 109 | 93 to 125 | 70 to 147 | 96% | 90% | 80% | 65% | 47% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 73 | 59 to 86 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 66 | 53 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Libby Birch | HBFL | 63 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 63 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 37% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFR | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Vikki Wall | FPR | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Taylah Gatt | WL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFL | 44 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 38 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 33 | 22 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Maddison Torpey | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23 |