AFLW · ROUND 10 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v North Melbourne
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 36
NM to win, 92% chance
ESS 8%92% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 15.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daria Bannister | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Gee | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Strong | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Belloni | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Busch | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 1.4 | 0.9 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 63% | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 63% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 63% | 23% | 9% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 63% | 23% | 9% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 61% | 21% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Vikki Wall | FPR | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddison Torpey | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Taylah Gatt | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Birch | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |