AFLW · ROUND 10 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v North Melbourne
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 36
NM to win, 92% chance
ESS 8%92% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 15.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.2 to 7.4 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.1 to 7.2 | 56% | 40% | 27% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | HBFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 44% | 30% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | FB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Gee | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Daria Bannister | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mia Busch | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Belloni | RR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | WR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sophie Strong | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
North Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libby Birch | HBFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.5 | 61% | 44% | 30% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.3 | 57% | 42% | 28% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 7.0 | 51% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 40% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Vikki Wall | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taylah Gatt | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Maddison Torpey | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |