AFLW · ROUND 10 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v St Kilda
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 31
FRE to win, 89% chance
FRE 89%11% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 19.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 25.6 | 21.9 to 29.4 | 16.3 to 35.0 | 97% | 88% | 62% | 27% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 24.5 | 20.8 to 28.2 | 15.4 to 33.7 | 96% | 84% | 54% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 24.0 | 20.4 to 27.7 | 15.0 to 33.1 | 96% | 82% | 49% | 19% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 19.2 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 83% | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | FPR | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | INT | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | HFFL | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jessica Low | WL | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Indiana West | BPL | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.3 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | HBFL | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Indi Strom | HBFR | 8.7 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Bella Smith | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | HFFR | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Monique Bessen | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
St Kilda
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 20.4 | 17.0 to 23.8 | 11.9 to 28.9 | 90% | 61% | 24% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 87% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 83% | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 10.0 to 26.1 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.5 to 23.9 | 68% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.7 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Molly McDonald | WR | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 12.2 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Alana Gee | BPL | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | INT | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | INT | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | CHF | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nicola Xenos | FPR | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Emmelie Fiedler | RK | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.7 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | HFFR | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Abby Hobson | INT | 6.1 | 3.9 to 8.2 | 0.8 to 11.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 5.3 | 3.3 to 7.3 | 0.3 to 10.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |