AFLW · ROUND 10 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v St Kilda
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 31
FRE to win, 89% chance
FRE 89%11% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 19.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 111 | 95 to 127 | 72 to 149 | 97% | 92% | 81% | 68% | 52% | outside our 90% range: 178 |
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 93 | 78 to 108 | 57 to 129 | 86% | 73% | 55% | 36% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 128 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 93 | 78 to 108 | 56 to 129 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 35% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 88 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 29% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 132 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 62 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 36% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Megan Kauffman | FPR | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 52 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 51 | 38 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 83 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Angelique Stannett | HFFL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Sarah Verrier | INT | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Jessica Low | WL | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Indiana West | BPL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Bella Smith | INT | 40 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | HBFL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 12 |
| Indi Strom | HBFR | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Noa McNaughton | HFFR | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Monique Bessen | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
St Kilda
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 83 | 68 to 97 | 48 to 118 | 74% | 55% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 70% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 72 | 58 to 85 | 39 to 104 | 54% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 50% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 65 | 52 to 78 | 33 to 96 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 56 | 44 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 55 | 43 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Molly McDonald | WR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Nicola Xenos | FPR | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Emmelie Fiedler | RK | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Alana Gee | BPL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Zoe Besanko | CHF | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Darcy Guttridge | HFFR | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |
| Kyla Forbes | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 30 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Abby Hobson | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23 |