AFLW · ROUND 10 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v St Kilda
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 31
FRE to win, 89% chance
FRE 89%11% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 19.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 63% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 63% | 23% | 9% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 61% | 21% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bella Smith | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Indiana West | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Low | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Monique Bessen | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Indi Strom | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 63% | 23% | 9% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nicola Xenos | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Molly McDonald | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | CHF | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Abby Hobson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alana Gee | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emmelie Fiedler | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |