AFLW · ROUND 10 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v St Kilda
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 31
FRE to win, 89% chance
FRE 89%11% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 19.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 3.3 | 2.0 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 48% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 47% | 32% | 17% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 45% | 30% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bella Smith | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Indi Strom | HBFR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Indiana West | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Low | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 1.7 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Monique Bessen | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
St Kilda
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 6.9 | 51% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 46% | 32% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Molly McDonald | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abby Hobson | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alana Gee | BPL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emmelie Fiedler | RK | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Xenos | FPR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | CHF | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |