AFLW · ROUND 10 · HENSON PARK
GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 2:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 19
HAW to win, 79% chance
GWS 21%79% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 19.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 24.5 | 20.8 to 28.2 | 15.4 to 33.7 | 96% | 84% | 54% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | HBFR | 21.6 | 18.1 to 25.2 | 13.0 to 30.3 | 92% | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 21.4 | 17.9 to 24.9 | 12.8 to 30.1 | 92% | 68% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.3 to 25.1 | 71% | 31% | 9% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Zarlie Goldsworthy | CHF | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.5 to 23.8 | 67% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 63% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | CHB | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 23% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | FB | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Daisy Walker | BPL | 9.7 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 16.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | FPR | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Alicia Eva | INT | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | HFFL | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kiera Yerbury | INT | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Martin | INT | 6.9 | 4.6 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.3 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Maisy Evans | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.1 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
Hawthorn
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 22.9 | 19.3 to 26.5 | 14.0 to 31.7 | 95% | 76% | 41% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 19.2 | 15.9 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.5 | 83% | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.4 to 26.7 | 79% | 42% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | HFFL | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 13.1 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | WL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.7 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Laura Stone | C | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Greta Bodey | INT | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Elli Symonds | INT | 6.3 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 1.0 to 11.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |