AFLW · ROUND 10 · HENSON PARK
GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 2:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 19
HAW to win, 79% chance
GWS 21%79% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 19.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 94 | 79 to 109 | 58 to 131 | 87% | 75% | 58% | 39% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 70% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | HBFR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 107 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Zarlie Goldsworthy | CHF | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 46% | 31% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | CHB | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Grace Kos | R | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Jessica Doyle | FB | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Mikayla Pauga | FPR | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Isabel Huntington | HFFL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Daisy Walker | BPL | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Alicia Eva | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Kiera Yerbury | INT | 33 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9 |
| Grace Martin | INT | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Maisy Evans | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
Hawthorn
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Wales | RK | 88 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 80% | 65% | 45% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Eliza West | R | 86 | 71 to 100 | 50 to 121 | 78% | 61% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 74 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 46% | 31% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | HFFL | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Laura Stone | C | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 86 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 12 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 52 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | WL | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 77 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Greta Bodey | INT | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 38 | 27 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 35 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 33 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Elli Symonds | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |