AFLW · ROUND 10 · HENSON PARK
GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 2:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 19
HAW to win, 79% chance
GWS 21%79% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 19.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarni Evans | FF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 63% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 42% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zarlie Goldsworthy | CHF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alicia Eva | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alyce Parker | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Martin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kiera Yerbury | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maisy Evans | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy Walker | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 1.5 | 1.0 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 63% | 42% | 18% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 63% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 63% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Greta Bodey | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | WL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Stone | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Elli Symonds | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |