AFLW · ROUND 10 · HENSON PARK
GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 2:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 19
HAW to win, 79% chance
GWS 21%79% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 19.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.7 | 85% | 75% | 60% | 46% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 79% | 65% | 47% | 32% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zarlie Goldsworthy | CHF | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 75% | 59% | 41% | 25% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.7 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 25% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daisy Walker | BPL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | HBFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | CHB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alicia Eva | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kiera Yerbury | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maisy Evans | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | FB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Martin | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Hawthorn
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 85% | 75% | 59% | 46% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 40% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Laura Stone | C | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 77% | 61% | 42% | 27% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 31% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 56% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | WL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Greta Bodey | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elli Symonds | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |