AFLW · ROUND 10 · IKON PARK
Melbourne v Richmond
Fri 16 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 21
MEL to win, 81% chance
MEL 81%19% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 41.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | FF | 25.8 | 22.0 to 29.6 | 16.4 to 35.1 | 97% | 89% | 63% | 28% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 24.8 | 21.0 to 28.5 | 15.6 to 34.0 | 96% | 84% | 55% | 23% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | C | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.8 to 27.3 | 83% | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 17.5 | 14.3 to 20.7 | 9.6 to 25.5 | 74% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | FPR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 54% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | CHB | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 54% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | FB | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | RR | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | WL | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.9 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | HBFL | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | INT | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lauren Pearce | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Aoife Horisk | WR | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 7.0 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tahlia Fellows | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Richmond
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | R | 25.9 | 22.1 to 29.7 | 16.6 to 35.3 | 97% | 90% | 63% | 29% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 22.4 | 18.9 to 26.0 | 13.6 to 31.2 | 94% | 74% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | C | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.7 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 14.0 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFL | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | RK | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | FPR | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | BPL | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Laura McClelland | INT | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | CHF | 9.4 | 6.9 to 12.0 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 8.5 | 6.1 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | INT | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ana Mulholland | WR | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |