AFLW · ROUND 10 · IKON PARK
Melbourne v Richmond
Fri 16 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 21
MEL to win, 81% chance
MEL 81%19% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 41.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyla Hanks | R | 100 | 85 to 116 | 63 to 137 | 92% | 82% | 68% | 50% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 124 |
| Olivia Purcell | FF | 93 | 78 to 108 | 57 to 129 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 36% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 119 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Maeve Chaplin | C | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 55% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 63 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 37% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Tahlia Gillard | CHB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Alyssa Bannan | RR | 59 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 27% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | FPR | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 122 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | FB | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Maggie Mahony | HBFL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Sarah Lampard | WL | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Lauren Pearce | INT | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Sinead Goldrick | INT | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |
| Aoife Horisk | WR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 8 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Tahlia Fellows | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24 |
Richmond
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | R | 100 | 84 to 115 | 62 to 137 | 92% | 81% | 67% | 49% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 58 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 84 | 70 to 98 | 49 to 119 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Isabel Bacon | C | 71 | 58 to 85 | 38 to 104 | 53% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Gabby Seymour | RK | 59 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Poppy Kelly | CHF | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Dana East | INT | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 77 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Charli Wicksteed | FPR | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Caitlin Greiser | INT | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Laura McClelland | INT | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Rebecca Miller | BPL | 38 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Ana Mulholland | WR | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |