AFLW · ROUND 10 · IKON PARK
Melbourne v Richmond
Fri 16 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 21
MEL to win, 81% chance
MEL 81%19% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 41.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahlia Gillard | CHB | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.4 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 17% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 3.3 | 2.0 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 48% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | C | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | FF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lauren Pearce | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aoife Horisk | WR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Fellows | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libby Graham | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura McClelland | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Monique Conti | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ana Mulholland | WR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |