AFLW · ROUND 10 · IKON PARK
Melbourne v Richmond
Fri 16 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 21
MEL to win, 81% chance
MEL 81%19% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 41.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyla Hanks | R | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.4 to 11.2 | 94% | 85% | 75% | 60% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 74% | 59% | 45% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | FF | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 81% | 67% | 51% | 38% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | FB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 70% | 50% | 35% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | C | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 56% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Aoife Horisk | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tahlia Fellows | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Pearce | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | WL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Richmond
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | R | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 74% | 59% | 45% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 83% | 71% | 55% | 40% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 82% | 68% | 52% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 75% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 71% | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | RK | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | CHF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ana Mulholland | WR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laura McClelland | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 21% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |