AFLW · ROUND 2 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v North Melbourne
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 21
NM to win, 81% chance
BRI 19%81% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 9.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 21.5 | 18.0 to 25.0 | 12.8 to 30.1 | 91% | 65% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.0 | 10.6 to 26.9 | 78% | 40% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | WL | 17.9 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.9 to 25.9 | 72% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.3 to 25.1 | 68% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | HBFR | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 12.7 | 9.8 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 7.1 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Neasa Dooley | CHF | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 5.5 | 3.5 to 7.5 | 0.5 to 10.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 5.5 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 5.0 | 3.0 to 7.0 | 0.1 to 9.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 29.7 | 25.6 to 33.7 | 19.7 to 39.6 | 99% | 96% | 81% | 51% | 22% | outside our 90% range: 42.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 29.1 | 25.1 to 33.1 | 19.2 to 38.9 | 99% | 95% | 78% | 46% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Mia King | C | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.8 | 11.9 to 28.8 | 87% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 17.5 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.6 to 25.5 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.2 to 24.9 | 65% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.3 to 23.5 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.5 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | WL | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | INT | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Vikki Wall | CHF | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFL | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | FPR | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |