AFLW · ROUND 2 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v North Melbourne
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 21
NM to win, 81% chance
BRI 19%81% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 9.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jade Ellenger | WL | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 49% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 66 | 53 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | HBFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 49 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Neasa Dooley | CHF | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 26 | 16 to 36 | 2 to 49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 25 | 16 to 35 | 2 to 49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 25 | 16 to 35 | 2 to 48 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 112 | 96 to 128 | 73 to 151 | 97% | 92% | 82% | 70% | 52% | inside our 50% range: 115 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 110 | 94 to 126 | 71 to 148 | 96% | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 124 |
| Mia King | C | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 111 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 72 | 58 to 85 | 39 to 105 | 53% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 65 | 52 to 78 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 58 | 45 to 71 | 28 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFL | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jenna Bruton | WL | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Vikki Wall | CHF | 51 | 38 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Blaithin Bogue | FPR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Eliza Shannon | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 69 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 72 |