AFLW · ROUND 2 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v North Melbourne
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 21
NM to win, 81% chance
BRI 19%81% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 9.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 44% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 45% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 73% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | WL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 68% | 49% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 14% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 45% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 46% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Neasa Dooley | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.9 to 10.1 | 88% | 78% | 68% | 53% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mia King | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 61% | 46% | 31% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 45% | 27% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Vikki Wall | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | WL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 49% | 27% | 14% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 45% | 24% | 10% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |