AFLW · ROUND 2 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Adelaide Crows
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 4
CAR to win, 57% chance
CAR 57%43% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 23.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 23.8 | 20.1 to 27.4 | 14.8 to 32.8 | 96% | 78% | 43% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 23.6 | 19.9 to 27.2 | 14.6 to 32.6 | 95% | 78% | 42% | 15% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.8 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 21.2 | 17.8 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.9 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WR | 17.7 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.8 to 25.7 | 71% | 32% | 9% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | HBFL | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | BPL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Sophie McKay | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | INT | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lila Keck | FPR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Darcy Vescio | CHF | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 28.2 | 24.3 to 32.1 | 18.5 to 37.9 | 99% | 93% | 73% | 41% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 20.4 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 12.0 to 28.9 | 87% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 20.4 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 12.0 to 28.9 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.3 to 28.0 | 84% | 50% | 18% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | HBFR | 16.7 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.5 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 14.5 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 49% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | HFFL | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Chloe Bown | CHF | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Brooke Tonon | BPL | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Christina Leuzzi | FPR | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | WR | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | INT | 5.5 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |