AFLW · ROUND 2 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Adelaide Crows
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 4
CAR to win, 57% chance
CAR 57%43% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 23.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 91 | 76 to 106 | 55 to 127 | 83% | 69% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 83 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 118 | 74% | 55% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 48 to 117 | 72% | 53% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 81 | 67 to 95 | 47 to 115 | 70% | 51% | 32% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 132 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 94 | 36% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Sophie McKay | HFFR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 61 | 48 to 73 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Keeley Sherar | INT | 59 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Harriet Cordner | HBFL | 54 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Lila Keck | FPR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Amelia Velardo | BPL | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Darcy Vescio | CHF | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 101 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 121 | 105 to 138 | 81 to 161 | 99% | 97% | 91% | 81% | 68% | inside our 50% range: 112 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 78 | 64 to 93 | 44 to 112 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 75 | 61 to 88 | 41 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 40 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 68 | 55 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 43% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 106 |
| Niamh Kelly | HBFR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 54 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Hannah Munyard | HFFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Chloe Bown | CHF | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 72 |
| Brooke Tonon | BPL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |
| Keeley Kustermann | WR | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Christina Leuzzi | FPR | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Jemmika Douglas | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |