AFLW · ROUND 2 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Adelaide Crows
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 4
CAR to win, 57% chance
CAR 57%43% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 23.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie McKay | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 68% | 25% | 13% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 62% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Vescio | CHF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lila Keck | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 69% | 25% | 13% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 46% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Bown | CHF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Christina Leuzzi | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brooke Tonon | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |