AFLW · ROUND 2 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Adelaide Crows
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 4
CAR to win, 57% chance
CAR 57%43% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 23.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harriet Cordner | HBFL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 7.0 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 54% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sophie McKay | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Vescio | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lila Keck | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 14% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 7.0 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 3.3 | 2.0 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 54% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chloe Bown | CHF | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | WR | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brooke Tonon | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Christina Leuzzi | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |