AFLW · ROUND 2 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Adelaide Crows
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 4
CAR to win, 57% chance
CAR 57%43% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 23.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 37% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | INT | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 47% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lila Keck | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie McKay | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 28% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Vescio | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 37% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 10.6 | 8.2 to 13.1 | 5.2 to 16.1 | 100% | 100% | 97% | 93% | 85% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 84% | 69% | 53% | 35% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 48% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 46% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brooke Tonon | BPL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 25% | 11% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 42% | 23% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chloe Bown | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Christina Leuzzi | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |