AFLW · ROUND 2 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Fremantle
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 16
FRE to win, 76% chance
COL 24%76% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 3.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | R | 23.3 | 19.6 to 26.9 | 14.3 to 32.2 | 95% | 76% | 41% | 13% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tarni White | BPL | 19.2 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WL | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.8 to 27.2 | 79% | 42% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.3 to 23.6 | 61% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Ashley Centra | HFFR | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | WR | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HBFL | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FF | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Imogen Barnett | RK | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Amber Schutte | CHB | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | INT | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HBFR | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | FPR | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | INT | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Kellyann Hogan | RR | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Maisie Nankivell | FB | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.0 | 1.4 to 12.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.2 | 0.9 to 11.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabrielle Newton | RK | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.1 | 14.5 to 32.5 | 95% | 77% | 42% | 15% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 22.8 | 19.2 to 26.4 | 13.9 to 31.7 | 94% | 73% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 22.2 | 18.6 to 25.8 | 13.4 to 31.0 | 92% | 69% | 33% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Mim Strom | RR | 19.4 | 16.1 to 22.8 | 11.1 to 27.7 | 82% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | HBFL | 15.1 | 12.0 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 14.1 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.4 | 40% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | WL | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | HBFR | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 11.3 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Laura Pugh | INT | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | FB | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Indiana West | HFFR | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | FPR | 6.8 | 4.5 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bella Smith | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.7 | 1.2 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |