AFLW · ROUND 2 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Fremantle
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 16
FRE to win, 76% chance
COL 24%76% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 3.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalinda Howarth | INT | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashley Centra | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FF | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Barnett | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kellyann Hogan | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maisie Nankivell | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tarni White | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amber Schutte | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 26% | 14% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 55% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bella Smith | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 33% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | FPR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 29% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Indiana West | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mim Strom | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Pugh | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |