AFLW · ROUND 2 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Fremantle
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 16
FRE to win, 76% chance
COL 24%76% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 3.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | R | 8.2 | 6.0 to 10.4 | 3.4 to 13.0 | 98% | 94% | 85% | 77% | 70% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 7.0 | 5.0 to 9.1 | 2.6 to 11.5 | 95% | 86% | 77% | 68% | 56% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WL | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 39% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 68% | 49% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FF | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Imogen Barnett | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tarni White | BPL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 45% | 26% | 13% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ashley Centra | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kellyann Hogan | RR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amber Schutte | CHB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 52% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maisie Nankivell | FB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 35% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 49% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | WR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 9.7 | 7.3 to 12.1 | 4.4 to 14.9 | 100% | 98% | 94% | 88% | 79% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RK | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 45% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mim Strom | RR | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 64% | 46% | 25% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | FB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 52% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | WL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | HBFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 30% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 36% | 21% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Indiana West | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bella Smith | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 21% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Pugh | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |