AFLW · ROUND 2 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v St Kilda
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 5:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 11
GEE to win, 68% chance
GEE 68%32% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 85
HIT Actual margin 85 · 74.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 24.8 | 21.0 to 28.5 | 15.6 to 34.0 | 96% | 83% | 52% | 20% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Amy McDonald | C | 21.4 | 17.9 to 24.9 | 12.7 to 30.0 | 90% | 63% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.6 | 11.7 to 28.6 | 86% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | HFFL | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.1 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 18.0 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 10.0 to 26.0 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WL | 14.2 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WR | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | FB | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Emma Murray | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 6.3 | 4.2 to 8.5 | 1.0 to 11.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Priya Bowering | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 22.1 | 18.5 to 25.6 | 13.3 to 30.8 | 92% | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.5 | 11.7 to 28.5 | 86% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 19.7 | 16.4 to 23.1 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 16.6 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.9 to 24.4 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Alana Gee | CHB | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 11.3 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | INT | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 9.4 | 6.9 to 12.0 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | INT | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Amber Clarke | FPR | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Rene Caris | RK | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.7 | 1.2 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | FF | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 1.0 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | CHF | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |