AFLW · ROUND 2 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v St Kilda
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 5:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 11
GEE to win, 68% chance
GEE 68%32% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 85
HIT Actual margin 85 · 74.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 91 | 76 to 106 | 55 to 127 | 83% | 69% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 52 to 122 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Mikayla Bowen | HFFL | 83 | 68 to 97 | 48 to 117 | 73% | 54% | 34% | 20% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 124 |
| Amy McDonald | C | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 69% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 65 | 52 to 78 | 33 to 97 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 88 |
| Chantel Emonson | INT | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Zali Friswell | WL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Rachel Kearns | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 40 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 10 to 63 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 68 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Alexis Gregor | FB | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Emma Murray | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Priya Bowering | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 85 | 70 to 99 | 50 to 120 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 85 | 70 to 99 | 50 to 120 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 73 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 66 | 53 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Alana Gee | CHB | 55 | 43 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | INT | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Rene Caris | RK | 43 | 32 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 38 | 27 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Amber Clarke | FPR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Zoe Besanko | FF | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Sophie Butterworth | CHF | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3 |