AFLW · ROUND 2 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v St Kilda
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 5:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 11
GEE to win, 68% chance
GEE 68%32% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 85
HIT Actual margin 85 · 74.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 84% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.9 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 84% | 39% | 15% | 7% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 64% | 23% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy McDonald | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Murray | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Priya Bowering | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | INT | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 21% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amber Clarke | FPR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 40% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | CHF | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | FF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alana Gee | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rene Caris | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |