AFLW · ROUND 2 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v St Kilda
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 5:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 11
GEE to win, 68% chance
GEE 68%32% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 85
HIT Actual margin 85 · 74.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 54% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 47% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 14% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amy McDonald | C | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Emma Murray | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Priya Bowering | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alana Gee | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | CHF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Amber Clarke | FPR | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rene Caris | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | FF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |