AFLW · ROUND 2 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v St Kilda
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 5:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 11
GEE to win, 68% chance
GEE 68%32% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 85
HIT Actual margin 85 · 74.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Morrison | RR | 6.5 | 4.6 to 8.5 | 2.2 to 10.8 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 57% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | HFFL | 5.9 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 44% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 87% | 75% | 64% | 53% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Amy McDonald | C | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 55% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 28% | 14% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 17% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 18% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emma Murray | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Priya Bowering | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 6.9 | 4.9 to 9.0 | 2.5 to 11.4 | 94% | 85% | 75% | 65% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 42% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.4 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 79% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Alana Gee | CHB | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 35% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 55% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 45% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | FF | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amber Clarke | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 35% | 21% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rene Caris | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |