AFLW · ROUND 2 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v GWS GIANTS
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 32
MEL to win, 90% chance
MEL 90%10% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 16.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 24.4 | 20.7 to 28.1 | 15.3 to 33.6 | 96% | 81% | 48% | 19% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 22.4 | 18.8 to 26.0 | 13.6 to 31.2 | 93% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 21.7 | 18.2 to 25.2 | 13.0 to 30.4 | 92% | 66% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | FPR | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.5 to 23.9 | 63% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | HBFL | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | BPL | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | FB | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.2 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | WL | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mia Austin | FF | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Alyssia Pisano | INT | 6.4 | 4.2 to 8.5 | 1.0 to 11.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 6.2 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 23.3 | 19.6 to 26.9 | 14.3 to 32.2 | 95% | 76% | 41% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 21.0 | 17.5 to 24.5 | 12.4 to 29.6 | 90% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | CHF | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 81% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.9 to 24.5 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | R | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.3 to 23.5 | 61% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 12.7 | 9.8 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brodee Mowbray | HFFL | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Alicia Eva | FPR | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHB | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Grace Kos | WR | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kiera Yerbury | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Daisy Walker | INT | 5.5 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |