AFLW · ROUND 2 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v GWS GIANTS
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 32
MEL to win, 90% chance
MEL 90%10% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 16.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyla Hanks | R | 6.7 | 4.8 to 8.7 | 2.4 to 11.1 | 93% | 85% | 74% | 64% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 5.9 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 66% | 53% | 44% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 37% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 4.8 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 71% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 62% | 46% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alyssia Pisano | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 36% | 21% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 22% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Austin | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | FB | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.5 | 2.3 to 10.9 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 61% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brodee Mowbray | HFFL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | R | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 77% | 62% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 67% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | CHF | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Kos | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 68% | 49% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alicia Eva | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daisy Walker | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 64% | 46% | 25% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 46% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kiera Yerbury | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |