AFLW · ROUND 2 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 17
PA to win, 76% chance
PA 76%24% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 32
MISS Actual margin 32 · 48.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 20.9 | 17.5 to 24.4 | 12.4 to 29.5 | 90% | 61% | 24% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 20.5 | 17.1 to 23.9 | 12.0 to 29.0 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.4 to 25.2 | 68% | 29% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | INT | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | HFFR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Indy Tahau | HFFL | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | CHB | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Olivia Crane | HBFL | 7.1 | 4.9 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 6.5 | 4.4 to 8.7 | 1.2 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 5.5 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 22.8 | 19.2 to 26.4 | 14.0 to 31.7 | 94% | 73% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Emily Bates | C | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.4 to 29.5 | 90% | 61% | 24% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.7 to 27.2 | 78% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 15.2 | 12.1 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 53% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | RR | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFR | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.7 | 1.2 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.7 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jess Vukic | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |