AFLW · ROUND 2 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 17
PA to win, 76% chance
PA 76%24% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 32
MISS Actual margin 32 · 48.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 93 | 78 to 108 | 56 to 129 | 84% | 72% | 53% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 91 | 76 to 106 | 55 to 127 | 83% | 69% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 121 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 87 | 72 to 102 | 52 to 122 | 79% | 62% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 116 |
| Indy Tahau | HFFL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Molly Brooksby | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 83 |
| Katelyn Pope | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | CHB | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 79 |
| Olivia Crane | HBFL | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Wales | RK | 97 | 82 to 112 | 60 to 134 | 89% | 78% | 61% | 43% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Eliza West | R | 83 | 69 to 98 | 48 to 118 | 73% | 55% | 35% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Emily Bates | C | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Daisy Flockart | RR | 51 | 38 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 95 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 72 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFR | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 67 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Jess Vukic | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5 |