AFLW · ROUND 2 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 17
PA to win, 76% chance
PA 76%24% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 32
MISS Actual margin 32 · 48.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 47% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Indy Tahau | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | HFFR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Crane | HBFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 7.0 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Bates | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 13% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | RR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Vukic | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |