AFLW · ROUND 2 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 17
PA to win, 76% chance
PA 76%24% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 32
MISS Actual margin 32 · 48.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 6.5 | 4.6 to 8.5 | 2.2 to 10.8 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 57% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.9 | 88% | 76% | 64% | 53% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | 27% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 69% | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | HFFR | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | CHB | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Indy Tahau | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 23% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 49% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Olivia Crane | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.8 to 9.9 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Emily Bates | C | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.8 to 9.9 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.7 | 85% | 74% | 64% | 49% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | RR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.4 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jess Vukic | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 27% | 11% | 6% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 21% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |