AFLW · ROUND 2 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Essendon
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 74% chance
SYD 74%26% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 24
HIT Actual margin 24 · 8.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 26.9 | 23.1 to 30.8 | 17.4 to 36.4 | 98% | 90% | 66% | 32% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | RR | 20.2 | 16.8 to 23.7 | 11.8 to 28.7 | 87% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.1 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.1 | 10.6 to 27.0 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.3 to 25.1 | 67% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.5 to 23.8 | 62% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 54% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | BPL | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | WR | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 6.3 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 1.0 to 11.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 5.6 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 24.0 | 20.3 to 27.6 | 14.9 to 33.0 | 96% | 79% | 45% | 17% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.1 | 12.1 to 29.2 | 89% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Maddison Gay | HBFR | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.3 to 28.0 | 84% | 50% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.8 to 27.2 | 78% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 55% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Georgia Gee | HFFL | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.8 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | INT | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Chloe Adams | INT | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Grace Belloni | WL | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mia Busch | FF | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFL | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | BPL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | CHB | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | FPR | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | WR | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 6.4 | 4.2 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Emily Gough | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |