AFLW · ROUND 2 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Essendon
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 74% chance
SYD 74%26% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 24
HIT Actual margin 24 · 8.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 108 | 92 to 124 | 69 to 146 | 96% | 88% | 78% | 62% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 122 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 88 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 80% | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Sofia Hurley | RR | 86 | 72 to 101 | 51 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Montana Ham | R | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 73 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 107 | 56% | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 111 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 72 | 59 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 68 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Sarah Grunden | WR | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 70 |
| Brenna Tarrant | BPL | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 89 | 74 to 104 | 53 to 125 | 81% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 85 | 71 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 77% | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Maddison Gay | HBFR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 73 | 59 to 86 | 40 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 70 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 67 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 42% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Georgia Gee | HFFL | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Stephanie Cain | INT | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Chloe Adams | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Mia Busch | FF | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Georgia Clarke | HFFR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFL | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Sophie Alexander | FPR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | BPL | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Grace Belloni | WL | 43 | 32 to 54 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Matilda Dyke | CHB | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Maggie Johnstone | WR | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22 |
| Emily Gough | INT | 27 | 17 to 36 | 3 to 50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 37 |