AFLW · ROUND 2 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Essendon
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 74% chance
SYD 74%26% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 24
HIT Actual margin 24 · 8.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 82% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 42% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 24% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 21% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | FPR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Gee | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Gough | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Busch | FF | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Adams | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Belloni | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddison Gay | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |