AFLW · ROUND 2 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Essendon
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 74% chance
SYD 74%26% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 24
HIT Actual margin 24 · 8.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 7.9 | 5.7 to 10.0 | 3.2 to 12.6 | 97% | 91% | 84% | 74% | 64% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | RR | 7.4 | 5.3 to 9.4 | 2.8 to 11.9 | 96% | 90% | 82% | 71% | 56% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 43% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 39% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 61% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 21% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 22% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 46% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 52% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 47% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 8.0 | 5.9 to 10.2 | 3.3 to 12.8 | 97% | 92% | 85% | 74% | 65% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 57% | 46% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Chloe Adams | INT | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 44% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Maddison Gay | HBFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 61% | 46% | 31% | 15% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mia Busch | FF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 36% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | CHB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 41% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Gee | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 52% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Belloni | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emily Gough | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |