AFLW · ROUND 2 · MISSION WHITTEN OVAL
Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 2:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 26
WB to win, 86% chance
WB 86%14% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 15.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 21.8 | 18.3 to 25.3 | 13.1 to 30.5 | 92% | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.7 | 11.9 to 28.8 | 87% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.7 | 8.0 to 23.2 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 14.2 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | INT | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | WR | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Lauren Ahrens | FB | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Deanna Berry | INT | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | BPL | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Amaia Wain | FPR | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.2 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mizuki Brothwell | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | RR | 25.0 | 21.3 to 28.7 | 15.8 to 34.2 | 96% | 83% | 54% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | C | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 55% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFR | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 50% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 14.0 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFR | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | WR | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | HBFL | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |